profession in danger of extinction

Is your profession in danger of extinction?

First they were workers like the supermarket tellers or the workers of the chains of assembly that saw like the automation they removed to them jobs.

But the development of robotics and artificial intelligence increasingly threatens more professions, including many of those typically considered "white-collar."

In fact, according to a study by the University of Oxford, in countries like the United States this trend already threatens approximately 47% of the entire workforce.

And, applying the methodology developed by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of the Oxford Martin Program on Technology and Employment, the World Bank estimated that the percentage is still higher in countries like Argentina (65%), India (69%) and China 77%).

Intelligent machines are increasingly able to do more tasks previously reserved for humans.

The fact that a job is under threat, however, does not necessarily mean it will be automated.

Indeed, as can be seen in the following table, more than 60% of the jobs in the Latin American countries analyzed by the World Bank are, in principle, amenable to automation.

But in many of these countries, the process will moderate because low wages would make the investment in technology less profitable so its adoption would be slower.

But beyond that, is your profession one of the most at risk?

The less "computerized" occupations

To know, a good starting point is to identify those jobs that are not so easily replicable by machines.

And, according to Frey and Osborne, originality and social intelligence are the two most difficult human faculties to automate.


So it should not be surprising that the professions less threatened by computerization are those that demand a combination of these skills.

"Most of the administrative, business and finance jobs in which generalist tasks requiring social intelligence abound are usually confined to the low-risk category," the researchers report in their original report "The Future of Employment."

"And so do most occupations in the health, education, art and media sectors," the report said.

Robots are increasingly able to perform precision jobs, but not to think on their own.

With occupations such as occupational therapists, doctors, surgeons, nutritionists, dentists, podiatrists and psychologists, the health sector dominates the list of those with a risk factor of only 1% or less.

This certainly seems logical in a context in which technological advances are also extending life expectancy.

Scientists and engineers also seem quite protected by the high levels of creative intelligence required for their tasks.

What is surprising are data from the analysis of countries such as the United Kingdom, in which middle class occupations classified as "medium" risk of extinction by 2025.

Judges and magistrates (40%), economists (43%), historians (44%), programmers (48%), commercial pilots (55%) and financial advisors (58% risk).

The most threatened

Oxford researchers anticipate that most people working in transport and logistics will eventually be replaced by technology.

And the same will happen with the employees dedicated to administrative support work and the productive labor of the manufacturing sector.

Another surprising fact is that many white-collar workers are also under threat.

Indeed, according to Frey and Osborne, "a substantial percentage of jobs in services, sales and construction exhibit high probabilities of computerization."

To explain this, the researchers note that the domestic robot market is already growing by 20% annually.

"As the comparative advantage of human mobility and human desertion decreases, the pace of labor replacement in service occupations will grow," they say in the report.

And they also point out that many of the tasks linked to sales - such as those developed by tellers, clerks and telephone vendors - do not actually require high levels of social intelligence.

The greater use of prefabricated materials could end up costing jobs to the construction sector.

The professors of Oxford, who in total analyzed the possibilities of more than 700 occupations, nevertheless recognize the difficulties of predicting the future.

"The scope and pace of computerization will depend on numerous other factors," they stress.

But your study suggests trends that maybe worth taking into account when deciding your next step.